The Netherlands Case Study

Between 2022 and 2024, the Netherlands significantly raised tobacco excise taxes, particularly in 2024 when the planned increase was doubled. This led to a sharp drop in domestic FCT consumption, more so than FMC, reflecting high price sensitivity among FCT users in this mature market. However, these tax hikes also triggered a surge in non-domestic FMC use, which nearly doubled in one year, offsetting declines in domestic consumption and leaving total FMC consumption stable. Despite the intention to boost revenue, early data indicate a decrease in tobacco tax income, suggesting that the erosion of FCT’s price advantage has prompted consumers to shift toward non-domestic FMC instead.